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ACTUAL BUSINESS SURVEYS *
BUSINESS CONJUNCTURE
NSI BUSINESS SURVEYS1,2, JUNE 2004
In June 2004 the total business climate indicator3 increased
by 2.3 percentage points against its May level. That improvement
was due to the more favourable economic conjuncture in
industry, construction, retail trade and the service sector.
Industry. The composite business climate indicator
in industry rose by 2.9 percentage points in comparison
with a month before which is a result of the more optimistic
assessments about the present business situation of
enterprises. The last inquiry also showed a decrease
of the balance of production activity compared to May,
due to the shifting of opinions of industrial managers
from "increased" to remaining at the same
level of output. The production assurance with domestic
orders improved, while the orders from abroad decreased
as compared to assessments in May.
As a whole the factors limiting the activity decreased
their negative impact, but in retrospect the problems
connected with the competitive import and the insufficient
foreign demand overran their long-term averages.
According to the opinion of industrial managers an increase
of selling prices over the next 3 months was expected.
Construction. In June, the increased optimism in assessments
about the present business situation as well as in the
expectations over 6 months ahead increased the level
of the composite business climate indicator in construction
by 1.8 percentage points, as compared to May. The assessments
of managers about the present production activity in
construction enterprises have improved. The survey also
registered a certain increase of number of clients with
delay in payments and more problems connected with competition
in the sector.
The NSI business inquires did not record higher expectations
as regards the selling prices in construction.
Retail trade. In the last month the economic conjuncture
in retail trade registered an improved business climate
- the composite indicator increased by 4.8 percentage
points. The expectations about the business situation
over the next 6 months as well as about the volume of
sales over the next 3 months were higher. Expectations
about the orders placed with suppliers were more optimistic,
too.
Concerning the selling prices in retail trade higher
inflationary expectations were not recorded compared
to May.
Service sector4. In June 2004 the composite indicator
of the business climate in the service sector kept approximately
the level of the previous month. The demand for services
increased, as in June the balance of assessments on
that indicator was 11.0 percentage points above its
May level. The expectations about the demand for services
offered by the enterprises of that sector, also remained
positive.
The business surveys in June registered expectations
on price advance over the next months.
Please, see the graphics at website address:
http://www.nsi.bg/Economy_e/Economy_e.htm
- Since May 2002 all business surveys are co-financed
by the NSI and the European Commission according the
agreement signed between these two institutions. The
NSI has undertaken to conduct the surveys according
tothe Harmonized EU Programme. Any NSI notice or publication
of NSI reflects the author's view and the Commission
is not liable for any use that may be made of the
information contained therein.
- The replies of questions from the inquiries are
presented in a three-fold ordinal scale of the following
type: "up", "unchanged", "down"
or "above normal", "normal", "below
normal". The balances of assessments are calculated
as a difference of the relative shares of extreme
variants of answers. The business climate indicator
is a geometric mean of balances of assessments of
the present business situation and the expected business
situation of enterprises in the next 6 months.
- The total Business Climate Indicator is a weighted
average of four branch business climate indicators:
in industry, construction, the retail trade and the
service sector, the last indicator of the business
climate in the service sector being included in the
total time series since May 2002.
- Excl. trade.
Published on 28.06.2004
CONSUMER SURVEY1 - APRIL 2004
In April the total confidence indicator for the economy
rose by 5.0 percentage points against its January level
reaching minus 8.4%.
For the same period (from January until April 2004) the
consumer confidence indicator registered also an increase
of 3.8 percentage points, as for urban inhabitants it
was of 2.3 percentage point but for rural inhabitants
amounted to 7.2 percentage points.
The consumers' opinions on the ongoing in the last 12
months changes in the financial situation of households
as well as on their expectations for the next 12 months
were more favourable and the increase of the balance indicators
compared to the previous January survey was 3.2 and 5.1
percentage points respectively.
In April 2004 the total balance assessment of households'
budget improved by 1 percentage point in comparison with
January this year and that improvement was stronger expressed
by rural inhabitants. By categories of persons, there
was a deterioration of the balance of family finances
against three months before: by status of employment -
of unemployed persons, by age groups - of persons between
16 and 29 years old and between 50 and 64 years old and
by educational level - of persons with primary education.
The general economic situation in the country was assessed
as a whole more favourable compared to opinions expressed
three months ago both of present development of the economic
situation and in perspective for the next 12 months. The
inquiry registered greater improvement by rural inhabitants.
The balance assessments of consumers on inflation in the
last 12 months improved by 10.8 percentage points. The
anticipations about the change of consumer prices in the
next 12 months were also more optimistic by 8.2 percentage
points in comparison with the expressed opinions three
months before.
In April 2004 the consumers were greater optimists regarding
the expectations connected to unemployment in the next
12 months (a 4.9 percentage points decrease of the balance
indicator against its January level).
Compared to consumers' opinions in January 2004 the April
survey recorded higher consumers' expectations as regard
to savings and spending money for home improvements in
the next 12 months. The value of the balance indicator
on intentions on "buying a car" in the next
2 years were also higher.
Consumer
Survey for April 2004 (Graphics)
- METHODOLOGICAL NOTES. The persons
16 years and older are the object of the survey; the
sample method is random, clustered, proportional to
the population by regions, incl. urban/rural inhabitants.
(153 clusters with 8 persons per cluster) The interviewing
method is face to face.
The survey is a part of the harmonized program of European
Union for business and consumer surveys. The inquire
sheet contains standardized questions about the financial
situation of households, general economic situation,
inflation, unemployment, saving, intentions of making
major purchases on durable goods or purchasing/building
a home or buying a car.
The proposed variants of answers give an opportunity
to arrange them from optimistic, through neutral to
pessimistic. The balance of opinions is calculated as
a difference between relative shares of positive opinions
and relative shares of negative opinions with one peculiarity
that to the strong positive opinion and to the strong
negative opinion a coefficient of 1 is applied and to
the lower positive and lower negative opinions - a coefficient
of half of one.
With the surveys results, it is aimed to pick point
the direction of change of surveyed variables incl.
of consumer confidence level, which gives an opportunity
to investigate the tendencies in the development of
public opinions on significant economic phenomenon.
The composite confidence indicator indicator of European
Commission, the so-called sentiment indicator, is a
weighed arithmetic mean of 4 confidence indicators:
of industry - with 40% weight and of construction, retail
trade and consumers - each with 20% weight.
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- The industrial confidence indicator is
an arithmetic mean of balances of expected
production activity, level of orders and level
of stocks of finished goods - the last balance
taken with inverted sign;
- The construction confidence indicator is
an arithmetic mean of the balances of level
of orders and employment expectations;
- The retail trade confidence indicator is
an arithmetic mean of balances of present
and expected business situations and level
of stocks - the last taken with inverted sign;
- The consumer confidence indicator is an
arithmetic mean of balances of opinions regarding
the expected in the next 12 months development
of financial situation of households, general
economic situation, saving and unemployment,
the last taken with inverted sign.
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Published on 13.05.2004
INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN INDUSTRY
The investment business survey1 of NSI carried out
among industrial enterprises2 in the second half of
April this year, collected information about investment
plans of those enterprises for 2004.
A 53% growth of investments is expected in public
sector of industry, which is mainly due to the energy.
The relative share of this sector in the total volume
of the expected expenditures of acquiring fixed tangible
and intangible assets in 2004 reaches 47%, 14.5 percentage
points higher against the public - private sector
proportion in 2003.
The enterprises in the private sector expect 17% less
investments in 2004 in comparison with those done
a year ago, which is mainly due to manufacturing.
At the same time, however the total nominal increase
of investments in 2004 in comparison with the previous
year is expected to be 5.3%.
According to product orientation of production (Aggregations
for economic analysis and prognoses A20) the energy
and water-related industries cover the greatest share
of the expected investments in 2004 (50%) with expected
growth against 2003 of 28.6%. On the second place
according to the projected volume of investments are
industries, producing intermediate goods (26% share),
but compared to the previous year this volume is by
9.8% less. The industries producing food and beverages
have a 12% relative share in the expected investments
in 2004, as they foresee a decrease of 7.4% against
2003.
- Since May 2002 all business surveys are co-financed
by the NSI and the European Commission according
to the agreement signed between these two institutions.
NSI has the engagement to conduct the surveys according
the Harmonized EU Programme. Any notice or publication
of NSI reflects the author's view and the Commission
is not liable for any use that may be made of the
information contained therein.
- The observed enterprises cover 96% of the annual
turnover in industry.
Published on 21.05.2004
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*
For more information please enter the website
of the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria:
http://www.nsi.bg
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